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Iran faces a difficult nuclear decision

By M.Behnoud

As the nuclear agreement reached between Iran and the European troika of France, Britain and Germany, is awaiting approval by the decision makers of the Islamic Republic, there are signs that reaching a final decision is harder that what was imagined last month.

Iran’s four-man negotiating team ended their negotiations in Paris as both sides as well as the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency tried to avoid making optimistic comments and preferred to await approval from Tehran. What make reaching a decision difficult in Tehran, are comments by Europeans that what had been agreed in Paris was the maximum of what that could be achieved. They also said that any delay by Tehran in accepting watered-down offers from Europe would prepare the way for referring Iran’s nuclear case to the UN Security Council as threatened by the US.

In this atmosphere, Iran’s hardliners are trying to pretend that they welcome a more acute crisis in Iran’s international relations. They think they can use such a crisis in their plans for the upcoming presidential elections. However this kind of doctrine does not have many supporters amongst the decision makers as it is considered a dangerous adventure. Even the main wing of Iran’s conservatives demonstrated their preference for a peaceful solution and a calm atmosphere just before the elections, by presenting and passing a relatively mellow bill in the parliament.

However, among Tehran newspapers, Jomhuri Islami continues to voice opposition to the process by calling Paris talks, as previous negotiations with the troika, as misleading and one-sided. It also demands disregarding all agreements and nuclear pacts. This newspaper, for twenty five years since its establishment, has always been the one to recommend hard-line and extreme stances in internal and external politics.

On the Other hand one of the reform-minded newspapers, Aftab-e Yazd, has referred to comments by the Chinese foreign minister in Tehran which showed that even the 25-year deal to sell natural gas to China did not stop him saying that China’s support was awaiting the outcome of Iran/Europe talks. It concludes that, considering the current international stand, Iran had no choice but to accept troika’s offer. The newspapers then refers to the hard-line stand by France, Germany, Italy, Canada and even non-aligned countries against Iran’s nuclear policies and asks what happened to the atmosphere of détente that appeared after the election of President Mohammad Khatami.

At the same time, the powerful head of Iran’s Expediency Council, former president Hashemi Rafsanjani, was the first amongst Iranian leaders and decision makers who talked about the Paris agreement and asked for new ways of negotiations based on that agreement. Mr. Rafsanjani said that based on Paris talks, Iran must try to gain trust with Europeans in order to solve some international trade problems. He said that Europeans are very clever in nuclear talks and Iran must negotiate wisely and consider the need for concentration and national unity in the current situation.

Prior to Paris talks, the three European countries had hinted in many occasions that negotiations and any consequent agreement was the only opportunity to avoid referring Iran’s case to the Security Council. After that Iran will be faced with the decision of the Governing Board of the IAEA which can be guessed in advance.

International observers believe that President Khatami’s government has kept itself away from the process of decision making in this case. Moreover, there has not yet been an opportunity for the parliament to intervene. Therefore, the responsibility with this difficult task lies with officials who are above the government. These observers also believe that if Iran is not able to find an opportunity for more negotiations, the responsibility might shift to the parliament or the Expediency Council.